Sunday, February 27, 2011

Who Wants to be Number 1?

A couple weeks ago the 4 number 1 seeds looked set with Ohio St., Kansas, Pitt, and Texas. But fast forward to the present and at least 2 of those number 1 seeds are still up for grabs. Kansas and Ohio St. have righted the ship and look to be in good position for now. But Texas has now lost twice to middle of the pack Big 12 teams and Pitt has lost twice to better teams. It appeared Duke was going to sneak in and get one until their nightmare in Blacksburg last night. Speaking of, congratulations to Seth Greenberg's Hokies for finally getting a big win. Now they have a legit shot of an at-large barring another bad loss. So with all these losses for the top 5 teams in recent weeks is BYU a candidate for a number 1 after their impressive sweep of San Diego St? Jimmer Fredette's Cougars have just 2 losses and are number 2 in the rpi. Memphis was the last non BCS team to get a number 1 back in 2007, but it appears BYU has a great chance for a top seed if they can win out. It will be fun to watch. Championship Week begins Saturday! The Ides of March are upon us!
As mentioned Va Tech has put themselves back in the bubble conversation with the big win over Duke. They appeared dead in the water after losing to Virginia last week, but took advantage of a great opportunity and now it will be a matter of building on it. Duke beat Temple before the loss to Tech and still have a shot at a 1 seed depending on how things play out. North Carolina got wins over NC St. and Maryland this week and look to be a 4 or 5 seed. BC and Florida St. both loss during the week to Miami and Maryland respectively, but recovered with wins this weekend. Both teams are still on the bubble.
Syracuse had a great week winning at Villanova and Georgetown. They were sliding some, but are back on track for now. A team that is really fading is Villanova. They have not played well since the 4 point play Rutgers had to beat them a couple weeks ago. They also lost to St. John's at home who also beat DePaul. They continue to be one of the hottest teams in the country. Georgetown didn't just lose 2 games at home this week, the other was to Cincy, they also lost maybe their best player in Chris Wright. He could be out for the year. Cincy should be in now even with the loss to UConn today. UConn lost at home to Marquette earlier in the week. Marquette really helped themselves with that road win and are right in the middle of the bubble talk. Louisville really helped their seeding potential by knocking off Pitt in ot, they also won at Rutgers. Pitt finished off the sweep of rival West Virginia earlier in the week. West Virginia rebounded with a win at Rutgers. And Notre Dame continues to be a candidate for a 2 seed as they won both games this week.
Kansas St. had a good week winning at Nebraska and beating Missouri. They should be safely in now. Nebraska couldn't sustain the momentum from the big win over Texas as they also lost at Iowa St. They have some work to do. Missouri blew out Baylor who just won't go away as they came back to beat Texas A&M this weekend. They still have work to do I think though. Kansas won both games this week and Colorado had the big win over Texas to keep themselves in the conversation for an at-large berth.
It could have been a huge week for Tennessee as they started by finishing the sweep of Vandy, but lost at home to Mississippi St. Vandy blew out LSU to keep the 2nd seed in the East as Kentucky lost yet another road game this time at Arkansas. Kentucky was able to continue the home win streak by beating Florida to avenge their earlier loss. Florida beat Georgia, but Georgia should still be safe as they avoided a bad loss by beating South Carolina. Alabama escaped a disastrous loss to Auburn, but lost at Ole Miss. They have a very small margin for error so we shall see how much that loss affects their at-large hopes.
Minnesota continues to falter losing at home to Michigan and Michigan St. It's not looking good for Tubby's boys. Michigan just missed a huge week as Wisconsin got a buzzer beater to knock them off. Michigan St. was blown out by Purdue, but they are still safe with the weak bubble. Ohio St. got blow out wins over Illinois and Indiana to maintain a number 1 seed. Purdue also beat Indiana and look to be a 2 seed right now. Illinois could use a good win to boost their resume. They have not played well lately.
UCLA knocked off Arizona St. and Arizona. They are now tied for 1st with Arizona and they look to be safely in. Arizona also lost at USC. So after their big win against Washington they had a let down and their seeding could be affected. Washington is currently being blown out at home by Washington St. The Huskies should still be in, but they do have some bad losses.
San Diego St.'s bid for a 1 seed is probably out the window now as they were swept by BYU. They should still be a 2 barring any upset loss. As mentioned BYU could be a candidate for a 1 seed now. UNLV had a good week winning twice with one of those being in The Pit something BYU could not do. And that win over Kansas St. is looking better and better. They are playing for seeding. Colorado St. suffered a devastating loss to Air Force after playing BYU close. That loss could keep the Rams out.
Temple lost at Duke, but they are in along with Xavier who won both games this week including at rival Dayton. The Flyers could have got in the bubble conversation with a win over Xavier. Richmond has an outside shot at an at-large.
St. Mary's woes continued as Gonzaga came to town and beat them in ot. Gonzaga is playing better, but it will be hard for either of these teams to get an at-large. St. Mary's does have a win over St. John's though. Memphis beat Houston but was blown out at UTEP. Tough to figure out this team. UAB is in the conversation, but not much there. Old Dominion and George Mason continue to win. I think both of these teams are in as of now.
Blind resume time: Team A 20-9 (13-5) rpi 45 sos 80 top 50 record 3-3 Key wins Florida St. and Cleveland St. twice Bad losses Evansville and Wright St. Team B 20-9 (11-3) rpi 63 sos 78 top 50 record 2-5 Key wins Marquette and Xavier Bad losses Santa Clara and San Francisco Team C 19-8 (9-5) rpi 64 sos 110 top 50 record 2-5 Key wins Florida St. and Duke Bad losses Georgia Tech and Virginia. What do you think? Any of these look like tourney resumes?





Team A Butler Team B Gonzaga Team C Virginia Tech

6 comments:

  1. Lookin at the resumes blindly, Butler looked best, followed by Virginia Tech and the Zags. Butler and Gonzaga had some bad non-BCS losses but Georgia Tech and Virginia are 2 of the worst in the BCS. I agree that Virginia Tech looks good after beating Duke but with their history it wouldn't surprise me to see them turn around and lose to BC at home. The WCC tournament will be interesting and St. Mary's-Gonzaga most likely needs to be the title game for both to feel good about getting in. Butler has the impressive sweep over Cleveland State and are on a roll, but the Youngstown State loss sticks out to me. They would also be served well to make the Horizon championship game.

    What do you think the ceiling is as far as seeding for Kentucky? How about a best case or worse case scenario?

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  2. V Tech's sos still sucks. Every year he complains but due to a weak ACC still has bad sos. Nick I think UK can easily win out with Vandy at home and Tenn on the road. Couple that with a run through the SEC championship and I see a 3 seed. Lose one of the next two and only take one or two games in the tourney and I'm going with a six seed. Our road record is terrible!

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  3. Nick, I tweaked my brackets this morning and moved UK to a 4 seed. That was assuming they beat Vandy at home and it looks like they will. I agree with jp that a 3 is as high as they go, but I think a 5 is as low as they go. They would have to lose out to do any worse than a 5 I think. You're right about the Hokies. That's their reputation to fall on their face just when you think they're going to make it. Last time I checked they were getting blown out at home by fellow bubble team BC.
    Thanks for reading and leaving your comments guys. Tell your friends.

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  4. Breaking news...BYU suspended their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Daviess, for the rest of the season. This could really affect their chances of a 1 seed. It will be interesting to see how they play without him.

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  5. UK as high as a 3 seed tells me what I need to know about how weak the field is this year. Watching them play against even average to bad SEC teams on the road is not what the committee likes to see. It's awful, but when you compare it to a few others I don't suppose it's that much worse. That brings the question of is college basketball currently filled with parody or mediocrity? There's a fine line between the two...

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